ARDL Panel Strength in Detecting Economic Stability Leading Indicators toward CIVI Countries

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ARDL Panel Strength in Detecting Economic Stability Leading Indicators toward CIVI Countries

ABSTRACT:- The short-term goal of this research is to analyze the contribution of changes in macroeconomic instruments due to changes in monetary policy instruments with inflation expectations that can maintain economic stability, including (Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Money Supply, Inflation Expectations, GDP and Inflation). The specific target in this study is to find the Leading indicator of the effectiveness of controlling economic stability in each CIVI country. The material used in this study is quantitative material with panel data in 4 CIVI countries, secondary data sources in time series, i.e. from the first quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2017. The data analysis model in this study is the ARDL Panel, analysis model. The ARDL Panel analysis results show that the Leading indicator of country effectiveness in controlling the stability of CIVI countries, such as India (Interest, Exchange Rate, Amount of money supply, Inflation Expectations and GDP) and Vietnam (Interest, Amount of money circulating and GDP). Other countries such as Indonesia controlling economic stability is carried out by interest and the money supply, while China is carried out through the money supply.

Keywords:- interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, GDP and inflation

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