ABSTRACT:- This study fills an important gap in the literature by disentangling the short- and long-term effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Vietnam’s merchandise exports to the United States, an issue that macro-level studies have yet to address in the context of deep GVC integration and imported input reliance. We employ Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques on quarterly data to quantify how exchange rate volatility, differentials, inflation, and GDP dynamics shape export performance. Our results indicate that exchange rate movements account for roughly 10 percent of long-term export variation, while structural factors, particularly heavy reliance on imported intermediate goods and FDI-driven production, dampen the expected depreciation effect. In the short run, export sensitivity to currency shocks is negligible, suggesting that aggressive devaluation offers limited benefits. We recommend a managed floating exchange rate regime, coordinated with fiscal and monetary instruments, alongside regulatory policies to strengthen domestic value-addition. These findings advance our understanding of currency policy as a trade-promotion tool in emerging economies.

Keywords:- Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Vietnam-U.S. Trade, Export Competitiveness, Global Value Chains (GVCs)