ABSTRACT:– The present study aims to test the accuracy of financial distress predictions in Indonesia Eximbank over the period of 2011 to 2018. Using three models to see how accurate financial distress predictions are occurring in Indonesia Eximbank. The data used in this study is annual financial reports and analyzed using Altman, Springate and Zmijewski models. Altman uses four types of financial ratios that can be combined to see the difference between a company experiencing financial distress and a company with no financial distress. Z-Score Altman is determined by using the following formula Z-Score = 6.56X1 + 3.26X2 + 6.72X3 + 1.05X4, with the rating criteria Z> 2.60 is classified as a healthy company, while Z <1.10 is classified as a potential company experiencing financial distress, then the score between 1.10 to 2.60 is classified as a company in the grey area. Springate uses a stepwise multiple discriminate analysis to choose 4 of the 19 financial ratios that are popular so it can distinguish companies that are within the financial distress zone or secure zone. Model Springate formulated S = 1.03A + 3.07B + 0.66C + 0.4D with valuation criteria S> 0.862 classified as healthy company, while S <0.862 classified as potential financial distress company. The Zmijewski model uses ratio analysis that measures the performance, leverage, and liquidity of a company for its predictive model with the equation model used Z = -4,3 – 4,5X1 + 5,7X2 + 0,004X3. Zmijewski sets the criteria, if the firm’s score is less than 0 (X <0), then the company goes into nonfinancial distress (healthy) and if the score is greater than 0 (X> 0), the company is predicted to experience financial distress. Based on the clustering of criteria analysis results show that the financial condition of Indonesia Eximbank in 2011 up to 2018 is included in the criteria of “grey area” condition or can be categorized as “non-distress”, if it refers to calculation result using Altman model. In the results of the calculation using the Springate model, the Eximbank Indonesia financial condition is included in the potential distress criteria, whereas based on the calculation using the Zmijewski model, Eximbank Indonesia’s financial condition in 2011 is included in the “non-distress” criteria, but in 2012 up to 2018 is included in the “potential distress” criteria. The three models of potential financial distress predictions have been through testing and analysis, whereas in the first test it can be concluded that there is a significant difference from the Altman model comparison model, the Springate model and the Zmijewski model. While in the second test it can be concluded that the Altman model is more accurate in predicting the potential of financial distress in Indonesia Eximbank during the period of 2011 up to 2018 than the Springate model, and model Zmijewski.

Keywords: Financial Distress, Model, Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, Compare.