ABSTRACT : This study analyzes structural transformations in Vietnam’s economy from 2007 to 2023. The examination of spillover and connectivity indices among economic sectors indicates substantial changes in Vietnam’s economic framework. The livestock, fisheries, and agro-processing sectors routinely have spillover indices that exceed the economy-wide average, highlighting their significant impact and essential role in enhancing overall output across industries. Nevertheless, between 2018 and 2023, the spillover benefits of these sectors diminished significantly, despite an enhancement in their backward linkages. This tendency can be ascribed to the increasing backward linkages of other sectors, which reduced the relative spillover effects of livestock, fisheries, and agro-processing businesses. An analysis of spillover indices reveals that the majority of final products in the manufacturing sector – excluding agricultural and fisheries processing – demonstrate low spillover effects on value-added but exert a strong impact on imports. This indicates that manufacturing operations are significantly reliant on processing and assembly, resulting in greater dependence on imported inputs and a reduced capacity for domestic value creation. Notably, final consumption demand has consistently demonstrated the most significant spillover effect on value-added, even though its impact on total output has not always been the highest. This highlights the critical role of final consumption in driving economic growth and value-added generation. These findings offer significant insights into structural transformations within the economy and the diverse effects of various sectors and final demand components on economic linkages and spillovers.
KEYWORDS – analysis, IT; multiplier effects, induced effects, spillover index; sensitivity index; input-output; Vietnam’s economy;